[1] “baresoilFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “c3PftFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “c4PftFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”
[4] “cSoil_ens_ssp585_S3” “cVeg_ens_ssp585_S3” “fHarvest_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3”
[7] “fLuc_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3” “lai_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “nbp_ens_ssp585_S3”
[10] “npp_ens_ssp585_S3” “rh_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3” “shrubFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”
[13] “treeFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”

Which ensemble members match constraints?

Start with Level 2 (Andy’s constraints in NPP, NBP, cSoil and cVeg)

Timeseries of absolute vales

Anomaly timeseries

Include baresoil fraction data

### Anomaly timeseries AW + baresoil ## End-Of-Century values under various constraints

Starting with AW constraints (level 2) and then bare soil (level3)

Histograms of end-of-century absolute values

Histograms of end-of-century changes (anomaly from preindustrial)

Adding cumulative NBP as a constraint

##      [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,]    1    2    3
## [2,]    4    5    6
## [3,]    7    8    9
##      [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,]    1    3    6
## [2,]    4    9   15
## [3,]    7   15   24

Cumulative NBP in the level 4 constrained ensemble

## [1] 37
## [1] 12.8
## [1] 10

The carbon cycle in level 4 constrained ensemble

the impact of constraints on input space

First, the entire wave01 ensemble. Hard boundaries taken out early are visible here

### Level 4 constrained input space

JULES standard member in red.

Level 5 constraint

rank the level5 members by their 2100 values

##     2100 
## 139.5931
## [1] -175.2754  249.8923  397.8024

Level 5 CNPB, with selected test set members

Level5 has constraints on:

NBP, NPP, cVeg, cSoil, baresoilfrac, cumulativeNBP and treefrac.

Level 5 in green, selected test set in sky blue. Standard in dark blue.

## Level 5 input space, with selected members

## Indices in the design of the test set

## [1] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "param-perturb-P0811.conf"
## [3] "param-perturb-P0629.conf"
## [1] 918 811 629
##      [,1]                       [,2]               [,3]               
## [1,] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "17.3046968083808" "-175.275400905985"
## [2,] "param-perturb-P0811.conf" "20.665665082613"  "249.892286200105" 
## [3,] "param-perturb-P0629.conf" "60.7303559460895" "397.802374430549"
##  [1] "param-perturb-P0506.conf" "param-perturb-P0514.conf"
##  [3] "param-perturb-P0518.conf" "param-perturb-P0534.conf"
##  [5] "param-perturb-P0535.conf" "param-perturb-P0571.conf"
##  [7] "param-perturb-P0629.conf" "param-perturb-P0633.conf"
##  [9] "param-perturb-P0637.conf" "param-perturb-P0638.conf"
## [11] "param-perturb-P0655.conf" "param-perturb-P0668.conf"
## [13] "param-perturb-P0689.conf" "param-perturb-P0690.conf"
## [15] "param-perturb-P0694.conf" "param-perturb-P0699.conf"
## [17] "param-perturb-P0708.conf" "param-perturb-P0726.conf"
## [19] "param-perturb-P0737.conf" "param-perturb-P0767.conf"
## [21] "param-perturb-P0779.conf" "param-perturb-P0780.conf"
## [23] "param-perturb-P0786.conf" "param-perturb-P0788.conf"
## [25] "param-perturb-P0792.conf" "param-perturb-P0799.conf"
## [27] "param-perturb-P0806.conf" "param-perturb-P0811.conf"
## [29] "param-perturb-P0812.conf" "param-perturb-P0822.conf"
## [31] "param-perturb-P0830.conf" "param-perturb-P0846.conf"
## [33] "param-perturb-P0859.conf" "param-perturb-P0898.conf"
## [35] "param-perturb-P0905.conf" "param-perturb-P0909.conf"
## [37] "param-perturb-P0911.conf" "param-perturb-P0913.conf"
## [39] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "param-perturb-P0926.conf"
## [41] "param-perturb-P0968.conf" "param-perturb-P0969.conf"
## [43] "param-perturb-P0989.conf" "param-perturb-P0999.conf"
##  [1] 506 514 518 534 535 571 629 633 637 638 655 668 689 690 694 699 708 726 737
## [20] 767 779 780 786 788 792 799 806 811 812 822 830 846 859 898 905 909 911 913
## [39] 918 926 968 969 989 999
##       RUNID                      CNBP_1995-2014      CNBP_2100          
##  [1,] "param-perturb-P0506.conf" "-7.84657453995265" "172.205803356935" 
##  [2,] "param-perturb-P0514.conf" "66.3871666776373"  "76.9772863665623" 
##  [3,] "param-perturb-P0518.conf" "-4.32798296984071" "115.693002668575" 
##  [4,] "param-perturb-P0534.conf" "55.5836549035358"  "166.764130029029" 
##  [5,] "param-perturb-P0535.conf" "47.8569455222457"  "236.600922271012" 
##  [6,] "param-perturb-P0571.conf" "23.6581460814361"  "129.211811369449" 
##  [7,] "param-perturb-P0629.conf" "60.7303559460895"  "397.802374430549" 
##  [8,] "param-perturb-P0633.conf" "15.5122401162351"  "120.868837553522" 
##  [9,] "param-perturb-P0637.conf" "46.7165168399118"  "247.738717119868" 
## [10,] "param-perturb-P0638.conf" "58.1146374281919"  "44.8472948298766" 
## [11,] "param-perturb-P0655.conf" "63.1581396245538"  "27.0499840531412" 
## [12,] "param-perturb-P0668.conf" "36.0536153241313"  "161.024336589004" 
## [13,] "param-perturb-P0689.conf" "55.0536357350386"  "279.090708879328" 
## [14,] "param-perturb-P0690.conf" "18.0253016974566"  "117.090613265657" 
## [15,] "param-perturb-P0694.conf" "4.34762479349868"  "150.309551049826" 
## [16,] "param-perturb-P0699.conf" "54.0151616871214"  "50.0619408631258" 
## [17,] "param-perturb-P0708.conf" "-6.67157214936386" "141.559563974736" 
## [18,] "param-perturb-P0726.conf" "19.2984858197139"  "3.36488463251706" 
## [19,] "param-perturb-P0737.conf" "61.0012780539166"  "163.461048185285" 
## [20,] "param-perturb-P0767.conf" "29.171315753705"   "149.289829747145" 
## [21,] "param-perturb-P0779.conf" "52.9149137034168"  "47.5549265466262" 
## [22,] "param-perturb-P0780.conf" "43.7796426943458"  "122.488961475274" 
## [23,] "param-perturb-P0786.conf" "37.8624365146829"  "174.672229024731" 
## [24,] "param-perturb-P0788.conf" "63.6471834643835"  "193.788483182276" 
## [25,] "param-perturb-P0792.conf" "45.2360506865352"  "213.570910964087" 
## [26,] "param-perturb-P0799.conf" "32.5503106986962"  "83.885852928508"  
## [27,] "param-perturb-P0806.conf" "36.1313820232343"  "194.12773028712"  
## [28,] "param-perturb-P0811.conf" "20.665665082613"   "249.892286200105" 
## [29,] "param-perturb-P0812.conf" "2.31420763940994"  "-6.00808795517249"
## [30,] "param-perturb-P0822.conf" "37.6308617488356"  "90.2274194135868" 
## [31,] "param-perturb-P0830.conf" "41.3764281016866"  "172.710129733403" 
## [32,] "param-perturb-P0846.conf" "26.3891956711879"  "68.4167773199623" 
## [33,] "param-perturb-P0859.conf" "59.2184963890963"  "259.046449634767" 
## [34,] "param-perturb-P0898.conf" "11.0537941112906"  "150.558454240257" 
## [35,] "param-perturb-P0905.conf" "26.7473630296673"  "-76.3858668331925"
## [36,] "param-perturb-P0909.conf" "-1.47594975081028" "-28.1145594335714"
## [37,] "param-perturb-P0911.conf" "12.6732222928714"  "7.4477265118674"  
## [38,] "param-perturb-P0913.conf" "34.3523735215602"  "109.607119430019" 
## [39,] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "17.3046968083808"  "-175.275400905985"
## [40,] "param-perturb-P0926.conf" "-18.1572803411821" "150.761835973614" 
## [41,] "param-perturb-P0968.conf" "33.1584215550412"  "128.828481780042" 
## [42,] "param-perturb-P0969.conf" "53.5086154392904"  "48.2149437084363" 
## [43,] "param-perturb-P0989.conf" "65.7174836770793"  "228.084244827178" 
## [44,] "param-perturb-P0999.conf" "25.5473538706682"  "139.593092216788"